The 2026 Free Agent Class Is Still Loaded. Here's Who Moves, Who Stays, and Who Lands Where.

July 1 is three months away, and the arms race is already starting. The 2026-27 salary cap is confirmed at $104 million — an $8.5 million jump from this season — and every general manager in the league is running the same calculation: who can I afford, and who do my competitors need badly enough to overpay?

This summer was supposed to be the most star-studded UFA class in a decade. Connor McDavid re-signed in Edmonton before training camp. Kirill Kaprizov locked up a monster extension in Minnesota. Jack Eichel, Martin Necas, Adrian Kempe — each one found a new deal before reaching the open market. Kempe signed an eight-year, $85 million extension with Los Angeles in November, the kind of blockbuster that would’ve headlined any UFA summer. Nick Schmaltz followed in March with an eight-year, $64 million commitment to Utah, eliminating the free-agent class’s leading scorer from the pool entirely.

The class is thinner than it once looked. It is not thin.

Alex Tuch: The Market’s Best Forward

Alex Tuch is the name every team with cap space circled the moment Kempe signed in LA. The 30-year-old power forward has spent his time in Buffalo being paid $4.75 million to be worth three times that, and the market is about to correct the error.

Tuch is 6’4”, 219 pounds, and plays a complete game that aging contenders dream about at the trade deadline. He can drive play, he can kill penalties, he can play on the power play, and he doesn’t disappear when the game is tight. Spotrac projects his next contract in the $10–11 million range, and that feels right — or maybe even conservative given what Kempe and Schmaltz just reset the market for.

The Sabres spent the last two months trying to re-sign him before he hits the open market. New GM Jarmo Kekalainen has reportedly moved in Tuch’s direction on the ask, but a deal is not done, and as of late March, both sides remain apart on the term. If Tuch reaches July 1 unsigned, he will have the most competitive bidding war in the summer.

Where he lands depends on what he wants. Tuch grew up in Las Vegas. His brother Nick plays for the Golden Knights. If he prioritizes contention and a homecoming simultaneously, Vegas — a team that also holds a pending UFA in Rasmus Andersson — is in the mix. So are the Rangers, who are rebuilding after the Panarin trade but have the cap room to be aggressive. The Sabres have the financial flexibility and a team that is clearly ascending, if you squint at it the right way.

My read: Tuch tests the market, gets north of $10.5 million from at least three teams, and signs somewhere unexpected. He is too good and too expensive to stay in Buffalo unless that front office surprises everyone between now and July.

Evgeni Malkin: The Farewell Season

There is no drama here, just sentiment. Evgeni Malkin is 39, completing the final year of his four-year, $24.4 million contract in Pittsburgh, and as recently as March, GM Kyle Dubas offered what amounted to a handshake agreement: “Don’t worry, we talk after the season.” Both sides want this to end the right way.

The question isn’t whether Malkin re-signs in Pittsburgh — he will, almost certainly on a one-year deal in the $4–5 million range, heavy on performance bonuses. The question is what form he’s still in when that contract begins. His pace this season suggests he has one more productive year in him. He is not the Malkin who put up 104 points in 2011-12 and won the Hart Trophy, but he is still a threat in the offensive zone who commands defensive attention and makes his linemates better in ways that do not always show up on the scoresheet.

Malkin has said he wants to eventually return to Dynamo Moscow to finish his career in the KHL. That retirement moment is real and it is coming. But it is probably not this summer. One more year in Pittsburgh, one more Penguins chapter, and then the curtain closes. This city has earned a proper goodbye.

Rasmus Andersson: The Golden Knights’ $27 Million Question

When the Calgary Flames traded Rasmus Andersson to Vegas in January, they did it without a contract extension attached. The Golden Knights acquired him as a rental, gave up a 2027 first-round pick (top-10 protected), a 2028 second that converts to a first if Vegas wins the Cup, plus Zach Whitecloud and a prospect — meaningful assets for a pending UFA.

The gamble Vegas made is obvious: if Andersson plays well in the playoffs, he might sign an extension before July. If not, they got a right-shot defenseman for a Cup run and paid for it with picks. That is a franchise operating with championship urgency.

Andersson is 29 and has the skating and hockey IQ to thrive in Vegas’s system. The Golden Knights have the cap room under the new ceiling to pay him. The question is whether Andersson — who reportedly wanted to sign a long-term deal with LA last summer and couldn’t work it out — is ready to commit to Vegas after only a partial season. Short-term deal is possible. Long-term extension is the outcome Vegas needs.

If he hits July 1 unsigned, he will be the best defenseman on the UFA board, and several cap-flush teams will come calling.

The Goalies: Bobrovsky and Andersen

Two veteran goalies with high name recognition and diminishing guarantees.

Sergei Bobrovsky is 37 and completing the final year of his seven-year, $70 million contract in Florida. The Panthers’ playoff collapse this season — driven in large part by Aleksander Barkov’s injury — makes their offseason calculus complicated, but Bobrovsky was not the problem. He is expected to re-sign at a reduced AAV, likely in the $6–7 million range on two or three years. A handful of teams looking for a legitimate starter will make the call if he hits the market. He will not.

Frederik Andersen is the sleeper. He is 36 and has battled injuries throughout his time in Carolina, but when healthy he is a starting-caliber goaltender. His $2.75 million cap hit this season was a bargain. His next deal will be worth more and come with questions attached. Teams that are one reliable goalie away from being a legitimate contender — there are always three or four of those heading into summer — will have Andersen high on the list.

The Cap Context Changes Everything

The most important number for this free agency period is not the contract demands of any individual player. It is $104 million.

Every team in the league gains between $6 and $12 million in effective cap space next season depending on their current commitments. Rebuilding teams have enormous flexibility. Contenders with expensive rosters can retain their own free agents without the existential budget crises that have defined previous summers.

This is why Kempe got eight years. This is why Schmaltz’s eight-year extension made sense for Utah. Players and agents understand that the cap is climbing to $113.5 million in 2027-28, and contracts signed in 2026 will look affordable within two seasons. The salary cap era’s math is shifting in favor of long-term deals, and the July 1 market will reflect that. Expect the contract sizes to surprise people who are anchoring to 2024 and 2025 comparables.

Who Else to Watch

Beyond the headliners, a few names worth tracking as July approaches. Mike Matheson has been one of the most underrated defensive defensemen in the league during his time in Montreal, and at 32 he still has two or three productive years on a second-pairing left side. His extension talks with the Canadiens have been quiet all season — that either means they’re close or completely apart.

Anders Lee is 35 and in the final year of his seven-year deal in New York. The Islanders are deep in their own rebuild, and keeping an aging winger at $7 million makes limited sense unless he takes a significant haircut. He probably does, just to stay on Long Island.

Patrick Kane at 37 is completing his one-year deal in Detroit and is essentially a question mark wrapped in a Hall of Fame career. If his knees hold through the playoffs, someone pays for what remains. If not, the summer announcement is retirement. His agent will have the most interesting calls in July, assuming the Red Wings make the playoffs and Kane plays meaningful hockey right up until June.

The Bottom Line

This is not the class it looked like eight months ago. The extensions took the summit of the mountain away. What remains is still substantial: one elite power forward in Alex Tuch, one legitimate defenseman in Rasmus Andersson, two veteran goalies who will draw real interest, and a handful of depth pieces that will reshape several rosters before August arrives.

The cap jump does more than anything else to define what happens. Teams that have been sitting on space are going to spend it, aggressively, in a market that rewards boldness. The summer will be loud.

Who is your top priority target if you’re running a cap-rich team this July? Give me your best free-agent prediction on social media — I want to know which landing spot surprises you most.