What Does Ivan Demidov's Next Contract Actually Cost Montreal?

Last October, Kent Hughes locked up Lane Hutson on an eight-year, $70.8 million deal — $8.85 million per year — and the consensus was that Montreal got him cheap. A Calder Trophy winner. The best rookie defenseman campaign in recent franchise memory. Eight years for less than most people expected. The Canadiens did what every smart team does: they set the price before the player had a chance to define it.

Now they have to do it again. With a harder negotiation and higher stakes.

Ivan Demidov is currently leading all NHL rookies with 46 points in 57 games — 12 goals, 34 assists, a +8 rating — and sits as the Calder Trophy favorite. He is 20 years old. His entry-level contract runs through 2026–27, and the Canadiens can begin extending him this coming July 1. What happens in those negotiations will shape the next decade of this franchise.

Let’s get into the numbers.

The Comparable Landscape

The relevant market for a player like Demidov isn’t hard to find. The NHL has a very recent library of young star forwards who signed post-ELC extensions, and the pattern is consistent: eight years, front-loaded signing bonuses, and a cap hit that reflects what the team believes the player will become rather than just what he’s done.

Cole Caufield set the internal Montreal benchmark — eight years, $7.85 million AAV — coming off an injury-disrupted season where he was on pace for 40-plus goals. That contract looks like a steal now. Tim Stützle got eight years at $8.35 million from Ottawa after putting up 90-point pace numbers; some GMs around the league have tried to exclude that deal from comparable negotiations because the Senators signed it partly for market optics, not just pure value. Matty Beniers, after winning the Calder and then posting a down sophomore season, settled for seven years at $7.14 million. Dylan Cozens signed for eight years at $7.1 million off a 68-point campaign.

What do all of these deals have in common? They were signed when the cap ceiling was between $82 million and $88 million. That context matters enormously for Demidov.

The cap is rising fast. The current ceiling is $95.5 million. It’s projected to hit $104 million in 2026–27 and $113.5 million in 2027–28 — the first season Demidov’s new deal would actually kick in. That means the absolute dollar value of Demidov’s contract will be larger than Caufield’s or Stützle’s even if his percentage of the cap is identical. The number will look big. The actual cost, relative to the market, may not be.

Here’s what those comparable deals look like as a percentage of their respective cap ceilings: Caufield at $7.85 million was 8.2% of the $95.5 million cap. Hutson at $8.85 million in 2026–27 is 8.5% of the $104 million ceiling. Stützle at $8.35 million was roughly 10% of the cap at signing — which is precisely why teams pushed back on using it.

The reasonable range for Demidov, at 8% to 9.5% of a $113.5 million cap ceiling, translates to approximately $9.1 million to $10.8 million AAV. That’s the realistic window. Where he lands within it depends on three things: how he finishes this season, how negotiations play out, and what kind of deal structure both sides want.

Three Scenarios

Scenario A — The Hutson Discount (Eight years, $9.0–9.5 million AAV)

This is what Kent Hughes is working toward. You sign Demidov this summer, before he plays his final ELC year, and you get the deal done at roughly 8% to 8.5% of the 2027–28 cap. Call it $72–76 million total.

To pull this off, the Canadiens need Demidov to want to be here long-term — and to be willing to trade some market value for stability and a franchise commitment. This is the Hutson model: Hutson was told he was the guy, given security, and took slightly below what he might have gotten on the open market. The reports out of Montreal suggest Demidov genuinely wants to stay. If that’s true, and if Hughes moves quickly, this scenario is very much alive.

The cap math works beautifully here. With Laine’s contract off the books after this season — freeing roughly $8–8.5 million — and the 2027–28 cap jumping to $113.5 million, the Canadiens would have room for Demidov at this number alongside Hutson ($8.85M), Caufield ($7.85M), and Suzuki ($7.875M) without gutting the rest of the roster. This is the scenario where Montreal becomes a genuine powerhouse in the back half of the decade.

Scenario B — The Fair Market Deal (Eight years, $10.0–10.5 million AAV)

If Demidov finishes 2025–26 with 55–65 points, comes back next year and maintains or improves on that, and his camp decides they want full market value — this is where the number lands. At $10.25 million AAV, he’s sitting at about 9% of the projected 2027–28 ceiling. That’s fair. That’s where a first-line star winger who has two legitimate point-per-game adjacent seasons under his belt probably belongs.

The Canadiens can still make this work. It’s not their preferred outcome, but $10.25 million against a $113.5 million cap is very different than $10.25 million against the cap today. Montreal’s long-term commitments don’t blow up under this scenario — they just have less margin for error at the bottom of the roster and less flexibility to be aggressive at the trade deadline. You’re building around four players each north of $8 million, plus whatever Slafkovsky’s extension looks like when it comes due. That’s a real team, but a tight one.

Scenario C — The Bridge Deal + Blockbuster Payday

This is the scenario Hughes will fight hardest to avoid. A two-year bridge deal — say two years at $6 million — that takes Demidov to UFA eligibility or a second RFA window, then a massive long-term deal based on full superstar production. The risk is obvious: if Demidov keeps improving, you’re re-signing him at 23 or 24 when he might be a genuine 80-point player, and that number climbs toward $12–13 million. That doesn’t fit alongside Hutson, Caufield, and Suzuki without serious sacrifices elsewhere.

The only reason this scenario happens is if Demidov’s camp decides they don’t want to get locked into long-term Montreal commitment right now, or if they believe his ceiling hasn’t been properly priced yet. Given everything publicly known about his desire to stay, this feels like the least likely outcome — but it’s not impossible, and it’s exactly how a franchise can find itself in cap trouble despite doing everything right.

What The Canadiens Cap Actually Looks Like

Here’s the honest picture heading into 2027–28. Hutson ($8.85M), Caufield ($7.85M), and Suzuki ($7.875M) alone represent $24.58 million. Add Demidov at $9.5 million and you’re at $34 million for four forwards and a defenseman — against a ceiling of $113.5 million. That leaves $79.5 million for the remaining 19 roster spots, which is more than manageable.

The concern isn’t the big four. It’s the secondary commitments. Slafkovsky’s next deal. Guhle and Dobson locked in through 2031 and 2033 respectively. Mike Matheson. Goaltending. The fourth line. It all adds up, and the margin between a deep, competitive roster and a thin one comes down to how much Demidov’s deal costs relative to that rising cap.

Scenario A gives the Canadiens genuine flexibility. Scenario B makes them a cap-tight contender. Scenario C — or any version of a messy, prolonged negotiation — introduces uncertainty nobody in that locker room wants.

My Take

Hughes is good at this. He got Hutson done cleanly, he got Caufield done at a number that now looks prescient, and he’s been deliberate about not overpaying on the fringe while protecting the core. He’s not going to panic.

But Demidov is a different negotiation than Hutson. Hutson is a generational defensive talent whose market was at least somewhat ambiguous — elite offensive defensemen are valuable, but there’s genuine debate about how much they affect winning. Demidov is a winger who is currently the most exciting rookie in hockey. His camp knows exactly what he’s worth and will make sure Hughes knows it too.

The window to get this done at Scenario A pricing is this summer. If the Canadiens wait until after Demidov’s final ELC year — the way they originally approached Hutson — they risk the price climbing. One 70-point season from a 20-year-old changes the math on everything.

Get it done in July. Eight years, $9.25 million. Lock the cornerstone of this team up before the rest of the league has a chance to influence the conversation.

What number do you think Demidov ends up signing for — and does Montreal have the cap structure to make it work long-term? Drop your take on social media or in the comments below.