The 2026 NHL Playoff Picture Right Now: Who's In, Who's Cooked, and Who's Hanging by a Thread

Fourteen games left for most teams. The NHL regular season ends April 16. And right now, the playoff picture is a split-screen: serene at the top, completely chaotic in the wild card spots. Let me break it down conference by conference and tell you exactly what I think happens over the next three weeks.

Colorado Is the Class of This League

The Colorado Avalanche are not just in first place — they are running away with the best record in hockey. Ninety-seven points, a goal differential of plus-82. Nobody else in the NHL is close to that number. Stathletes already lists them with the top Stanley Cup odds, and I’m not going to argue. Nathan MacKinnon is healthy, the blue line is deep, and this team has the playoff pedigree to back it up.

Right behind them in the Central are the Dallas Stars at 94 points, who went 9-0-1 over their last 10 games. The only concern for Dallas heading into the playoffs is Mikko Rantanen — he was their trade deadline acquisition, their best player for stretches, and he’s now on IR with a lower-body injury suffered at the Olympics. If he comes back before the first round, Dallas is a legitimate Cup contender. If he doesn’t, they’re good but beatable. The Minnesota Wild round out the Central in third.

The East: Buffalo Finally, Carolina Quietly

In the Eastern Conference, the Carolina Hurricanes sit on 90 points, the best mark in the East. They’ve been quietly excellent all season — no superstars, just a relentlessly suffocating defensive system and enough offense to win most nights. They’re not flashy. They don’t need to be.

But the real story in the East — maybe the real story of this entire NHL season — is Buffalo. The Sabres have 88 points and are on the verge of ending the longest active playoff drought in professional sports. Fourteen years. They last made the playoffs in 2011. If you want to understand what that looks like in human terms, there are fans in Buffalo who are in their mid-twenties who have never seen their team in a playoff game as adults.

Since December 9, when Buffalo was sitting in last place in the East with a 10-11-4 record, they’ve posted the best record in the NHL — 29-6-2. They’re first in goals scored and goals against during that stretch. Tage Thompson is playing like a superstar. Rasmus Dahlin is a legitimate Norris Trophy candidate. Josh Doan had a breakout year nobody saw coming. And Lindy Ruff, who coached the Sabres the last time they made the playoffs, is back behind the bench to see it through. The playoff odds currently sit near 98%. The drought is over.

The Pacific Is a Three-Team Race to the Bottom (In a Good Way)

The Pacific Division has taken a weird shape this year. The Anaheim Ducks lead the division at 77 points. On this same date last year, their playoff probability was 0.1 percent. Now they’re a division leader with a 98.2% chance of making the postseason and a schedule advantage: only four of their remaining games are against current playoff teams. Credit to the rebuild. Credit to the players they’ve developed. This isn’t luck.

The Vegas Golden Knights are right behind at 76, and the Edmonton Oilers sit at 75. Both should hold their spots. The more interesting story is the Utah Mammoth, who at 74 points are the first-year franchise sitting in a wild card spot. A relocated team in their inaugural season. Wild card contenders. That’s a storyline the league should be promoting more aggressively.

The San Jose Sharks are the wild card story of the West. They haven’t been to the playoffs since 2019. They tanked hard for picks. They drafted Macklin Celebrini first overall in 2024. And now, somehow, they’re sitting at a 64-72% playoff probability with a favorable remaining schedule. This is the fastest rebuild in recent memory, and Celebrini is the reason it’s happening ahead of schedule.

The East Bubble Is a Disaster — For Detroit

In the Eastern wild card picture, Boston and Detroit each sit at 80 points, occupying the two wild card spots. Here’s the problem: analytics models give Detroit roughly a 34.5% chance of actually holding that spot through the end of the season. Meanwhile, the Columbus Blue Jackets, at 79 points and one spot out, have an 84.1% playoff probability. Columbus has been surging under their coaching staff, posting strong 5-on-5 possession numbers and getting standout goaltending. Detroit is holding a playoff spot and statistically unlikely to keep it. That’s the kind of tension that makes March hockey worth watching.

The Ottawa Senators at 73 points are still mathematically alive but fading fast.

The Winnipeg Jets Situation Is Brutal

This is the story I can’t stop coming back to. Last season, Winnipeg won the Presidents’ Trophy with 116 points. They finished first in the Central. Connor Hellebuyck won the Vezina. The Jets looked like a genuine Cup threat going into this year.

They are currently 28-28-10. One point outside the final wild card spot. Sitting behind Nashville.

Josh Morrissey — their best defenseman, 42 points in 56 games, averaging nearly 25 minutes a night — hurt his shoulder during Canada’s first Olympic game and never returned. That injury broke them. You can see it in the numbers. But injuries don’t fully explain a collapse from 116 points to bubble status. Something else broke too, and I don’t think Winnipeg is going to figure it out before April.

What the First Round Looks Like Right Now

If the season ended today, here’s the matchup I’m most excited about in the West: Colorado versus Seattle or San Jose in the first round. The Avs should make quick work of a bubble team, but a Sharks-Avs matchup would be appointment television — Celebrini’s debut against the best team in hockey.

In the East, I want Carolina versus Boston. Two of the most defensively responsible teams in the conference. Ugly hockey. Great hockey.

The Buffalo-Detroit or Buffalo-Columbus matchup, depending on how things shake out, is going to be electric purely because of what it means for the Sabres organization and their fans.

Three weeks. Fourteen games. Somebody’s drought is ending, somebody’s season is imploding, and at least two or three teams that think they’re safe right now are going to miss the cut.

Which team in the current bubble picture do you think crashes out — Detroit, Winnipeg, or someone else entirely? Let me know on social media.