Presidents' Trophy to the Bubble: How the Winnipeg Jets Collapsed in 2025-26

Twelve months ago, Connor Hellebuyck was accepting the Hart Trophy. The Winnipeg Jets had just finished 56-22-4 — the best record in hockey, their second Presidents’ Trophy. The narrative was locked: this team had figured it out. The engine was humming, the window was open, and all they had to do was carry it into 2025-26.

They’re 31-30-12 with nine games left. That’s not a bump in the road. That’s a full-scale collapse.

The Injury That Changed Everything

You can build a lot of narratives around how this season unraveled, but the honest starting point is November 22, 2025. That’s the day Hellebuyck went in for arthroscopic knee surgery to fix a problem that had been nagging him since training camp.

He was 8-6-0 with a 2.51 GAA and .913 save percentage when he went down — not transcendent Hellebuyck, but functional. Without him, the Jets went 3-8-1. The backup situation — Eric Comrie, going 11-9-1 with a 2.96 GAA and .895 save percentage across 21 starts — was simply not a playoff-caliber option. Nobody expected it to be. The Jets had bet everything on having one of the best goalies in the world, and the moment that was taken away, the seams started showing everywhere.

When Hellebuyck returned, he wasn’t himself. His full-season line stands at 17-19-10, 2.83 GAA, .897 save percentage. Last year he posted a 2.00 GAA and .925 save percentage. That regression is staggering. Part of it is the knee, part of it is the defense collapsing around him — but a goalie who was literally the best player in hockey last season turning in below-average numbers is the single biggest reason this team is where it is.

The Free Agent Gamble That Backfired

This isn’t entirely Hellebuyck’s story. GM Kevin Cheveldayoff made a series of moves last summer designed to push this team over the top, and they failed badly.

Jonathan Toews was brought in to provide a legitimate second-line center. He couldn’t handle the role. Gustav Nyquist, who had 75 points just two seasons ago, recorded zero goals and eight points in 31 games before becoming a permanent healthy scratch. Tanner Pearson was traded at the deadline to Buffalo for a seventh-round pick. A seventh.

These weren’t minor roster additions — they were supposed to fill genuine gaps in the lineup. Instead, they exposed how thin the depth was below the top two lines. When Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor were clicking, the team could hide it. When they went cold, there was nothing underneath.

Scheifele has been a bright spot — 31 goals, 55 assists, 89 points in 68 games. Connor signed an eight-year extension in October and has been consistent at 78 points through 68 games. But two players carrying the offense, with four busted free agents behind them and a defense beaten up by injuries, doesn’t work at this level.

The Defense Crumbled

Josh Morrissey missed significant time and finished with 12 goals and 34 assists across 63 games. That’s still a strong season, but the gaps when he was out were painful. Neal Pionk, Haydn Fleury, and Colin Miller all spent time on injured reserve at various points. The defensive corps that looked rock-solid last spring became a revolving door by December.

And December was the month that buried them. A 2-8-4 stretch turned a fringe contender into a team that was nine points back of a wild card spot at their worst. That stretch alone may be what ends their season.

Arniel’s Impossible Job

I don’t think Scott Arniel is the problem here, but he didn’t help himself. The pre-deadline incident where he told reporters “what you’re seeing is what you’re getting tonight” — then scratched Luke Schenn and Logan Stanley hours later, right before trading them to Buffalo — was a strange look. Whether that’s on coaching or management communication, it doesn’t matter. It was a stumble when the team needed steadiness.

The broader issue is that he inherited a roster built for one thing: riding Hellebuyck to 115 points and hoping that translated into playoff success. When the goalie broke down and the depth pieces turned out to be paper, there was no Plan B to run.

What the Deadline Actually Said

The Jets sold at the deadline. Schenn, Stanley, and Pearson went to Buffalo. Back came Isak Rosen — a 22-year-old who put up 87 goals and 185 points across 231 AHL games — Jacob Bryson, a 2027 second-round pick, and a conditional fourth.

That’s a rebuild trade dressed up in neutral language. Cheveldayoff called Rosen and Bryson “players to be evaluated as part of the team’s future beyond this season.” That’s not how you talk about a team still chasing a playoff spot. That’s a GM acknowledging the window is closing, whether he says it outright or not.

The Presidents’ Trophy Curse Is Real

People talk about the Presidents’ Trophy curse like it’s a cute statistical quirk. It’s not. The data is brutal. Since 2000, only three Presidents’ Trophy winners have gone on to win the Cup that same year. What’s less discussed is how many of those teams cratered the following season.

The Jets are now on the short list of teams who went from the league’s best record to missing the playoffs entirely the next year. The Rangers did it in 1992-93, then again in 2024-25. The 2014-15 Bruins and 2007-08 Sabres are also on that list. Winnipeg is about to join it.

There’s nothing fluky about what happened. The injury to Hellebuyck, the failed free agents, the defensive depth issues — these were real problems that a championship-caliber roster would have papered over. This team wasn’t that. The Presidents’ Trophy papered over the cracks for one remarkable season, and 2025-26 ripped them all open.

Where This Goes Next

With nine games left, Winnipeg is technically alive. They’re 8-4-3 in March — their best month of the season. A hot streak could still sneak them in. But the math is ugly, and the teams chasing the wild card spots have been playing better hockey.

The harder question is what this organization looks like next fall. Hellebuyck’s contract runs for years. Scheifele and Connor are locked up. Morrissey is still one of the better defensemen in the league when healthy. The bones aren’t bad. But the depth signings need to be rethought entirely, the backup goalie situation needs a real answer, and the coaching staff is going to face serious scrutiny when this season ends.

Winning the Presidents’ Trophy should be a launchpad. In Winnipeg, it turned into a ceiling.

Do you think the Jets can still scrape into the playoffs, or is this season done? What would you do this offseason to fix the roster — drop your take in the comments or find me on X.